Wanna be an NFL QB? Think Really Big or Really Small

Drafting an NFL quarterback is an imperfect science, at best. Many NFL GM’s have lost their jobs because they picked the wrong guy, thus miring their team in years of mediocrity. I took a look at the colleges where NFL starting QB’s played, crunched some numbers and tried to determine whether there were trends to determine NFL success from a player’s college football program. Perhaps my findings could help GM’s the next time they need to draft a quarterback.

The result is my latest column for SportsFanLive.

You can read the post here.

The column is also now linked on Fanhouse, a very popular, widely read sports blog (look on the right hand side, middle of the page. Post starts with “Truth or Myth”).

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One response to “Wanna be an NFL QB? Think Really Big or Really Small

  1. YoungFrankenstein

    I seriously don’t even know where to start. How about here….you conveniently list Eli Manning and Matt Hasslebeck in the small-time BCS category while also conveniently listing McNabb in the BigTime category. Do you mean to tell me Syracuse football is more presitigious and legit than both Ole Miss and BC football? Check how many draft picks come out of those two schools in recent years, what each team’s respective record has been in the past 5-8 years, and then re-think your fishy classification scheme. You are clearly re-organizing to fit what you believe to be true. A majority of people would disagree with you on that ordering. That is unless you meant NCAA Basketball, and then I concur.

    Let’s also not forgot to mention that these numbers are ridiculously skewed by a few select players, a la Favre and Warner. Kurt Warner was a great story, but if someone offers me a no-name QB from Eastern Montana State Technical Institute or a QB from Boston College, Vandy, or Ole Miss, guess who I’ll take my chances with? …..Nate Davis, the 49ers 3rd string QB went to Ball State. Keith Null, the Rams 3rd string went to West Texas A&M. Tom Brady from Michigan (Big Big Time) also sat backup, and guess what, he got his chance because he was good enough to get that chance. Just as Kurt Warner was good enough to run the show and just as Brett Favre was good enough. Just as Null and Davis will likely be playing in the CFL in 2 years while Qb’s like Matt Ryan, Jay Cutler, and Eli Manning will be leading Super Bowl contending teams. What is my point? It’s that there is absolutely no correlation here. Sure, if you look at 3 QB’s and apply that to an entire league, this is an easy argument to make. But I ask you this. What about the median/average TD/Int ratio and Overall Record for QB’s from each of your 3 categories? I’m no statistician, but I’ll refuse to believe QB’s from small-time non-BCS schools outperform, on average, those from “small-time BCS schools.” It happened to be that a couple great QBs (Favre, Warner, Brady even) snuck through undetected- great! I see your logic, and I appreciate your effort, but this truly is just random chance. Drew Brees gives you a better chance to win a Super Bowl than Romo, Garrard, Pennington, or Leftwich on each of their best days. Unfortunately, the Saints defense isn’t quite as good as those Patriots or Steeler’s teams that Brady and Big Ben had. Otherwise, your argument might sing to a different tune.

    But please do keep it coming, I like watcha’ got. Just next time, try to set your standards and perform your statistical analysis before coming to a final conclusion, and not the other way around. Clearly, this is a murky argument at best.

    p.s. Nice to list Kerry Collins in the mix. Check his Super Bowl stats that game. 15/39, 112 yd, 0 TD and 4 INT. He lost to Trent Dilfer of Fresno State who also didn’t put up such stellar numbers that game. But I guess that just fuels your fire. Trent Dilfer, from Fresno State, won a Superbowl. Not because of having the best defense of all-time perhaps, but because he went to Fresno State, a small time school, and played with a chip on his shoulder. Maybe you’re right after all. We need more Trent Dilfers in the league.

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